Prime Minister Modi’s two-day visit to Moscow on July 9-10 saw the revival of the annual summit meetings between the leaders of India and Russia. The last summit had been held in 2021 when President Putin visited Delhi. The visit has resulted in further strengthening the strategic partnership between India and Russia.
The joint vision statement issued after the talks focuses more on economic cooperation and trade unlike earlier meetings. The decision to increase trade to 100 billion dollars by 2030 was announced. This is a feasible goal given the large amount of oil imports from Russia at discounted rates in the background of the western sanctions.
The statement also announced that the Intergovernmental Commission on Military and Military Technical Cooperation will hold its next session in Moscow in the second half of this year. The military cooperation will be reoriented to joint research and development, co-development and joint production of advanced defence technology and systems. This is an important step given India’s close ties with Russia in purchase of military equipment and going towards co-production.
The Modi visit to Moscow and the summit meeting with President Putin has been criticised by United States and spokespersons for the Biden administration. The US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan has stated that “The bet on Russia as a long-term reliable partner is not a good bet”. The United States was particularly irked by the fact that the Modi visit to Moscow coincided with the NATO summit in Washington whose purpose was to unitedly target Russia over the Ukraine war and to show how Russia is globally isolated. The Modi visit hampered this projection.
The United States is signaling that India is now a strategic ally and it is expected to behave accordingly. The US ambassador to India Eric Garcetti warned that “the US-India defence partnership stands amongst the most consequential in the world”, but “don’t take the relationship for granted”. In another revealing remark he said “I know India likes its strategic autonomy. But in times of conflict, there is no such thing as strategic autonomy”
The United States is cautioning the Modi government that it has now various commitments in terms of strategic and defence ties with the United States and it should act accordingly. Unlike the time when the United States invaded Iraq in 2003, and India was critical of the US military action, times have changed. At that time India had not entered into the various military and strategic agreements with the United States and had yet to become a strategic ally. Now, according to the Americans, it cannot exercise strategic autonomy when it comes to issues like the conflict in Ukraine where the United States and NATO are aiding Ukraine
There are some lessons for the Modi government in this episode. Soon after the visit, the US National Security Advisor Sullivan spoke to the Indian NSA Ajit Doval. It is reported that both sides talked of holding the Quad foreign ministers meeting in Tokyo in the end of July and the summit meeting of Quad country leaders towards the end of the year. India is trying to reassure the US that it is fully committed to this US-led platform for the Indo-Pacific region. The United States will, despite the limitations that it is the fag end of the Biden term, try to further exercise pressure on India to participate in the strategic and military goals of the US and the Asia-Pacific region.
Here comes the contradiction emerging in India’s foreign policy and strategic vision. India is an important member of the BRICS which has expanded now and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. India continues to aspire to be the leading voice of the Global South. But, its strategic autonomy has already been severely compromised by its tying itself to the US bandwagon in Asia.
As far as the United States is concerned, notwithstanding the talk of “shared values” and “two great democracies coming together”, the real value it sees in India is its role as an anti-China force.
The Modi government should realise that this motive of the United States does not conform to our national interests. If it is really concerned about India’s strategic autonomy and following an independent foreign policy, it should take more steps to resolve the differences with China, particularly centred on the border question. If progress is made on this front, India will find itself in a much better position to retain its strategic autonomy and to work out a range of policies which will enhance its national interests. This, of course would also entail getting out of the defence agreements with the United States.